GDP growth would slow by ~40% given shifting demographics, unless productivity were to increase GDP of G191 Compound annual growth rate, % 3.6 Productivity 1.8 -40% growth 2.1 Employment 1.8 growth 1.7 0.3 Past 50 Next 50 years years at historical productivity 1 and Nigeria growth NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding SOURCE: The Conference Board Total Economy Database; UN Population Division; McKinsey Global Institute analysis McKinsey & Company 4