McKinsey & Company 4 GDP of G19 1 Compound annual growth rate, % 1.7 0.3 1.8 1.8 Employment growth Productivity growth Next 50 years at historical productivity growth 2.1 -40% Past 50 years 3.6 1 and Nigeria NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding SOURCE: The Conference Board Total Economy Database; UN Population Division; McKinsey Global Institute analysis GDP growth would slow by ~40% given shifting demographics, unless productivity were to increase