Boosting GDP leads to additional aggregate demand and spending throughout the economy, which can increase employment. Based on the historic relationship between real GDP growth and employment in emerging economies, we estimate that this would translate into a 3.5 percent increase in employment across the economy, or nearly 95 million new jobs. Historical trends suggest that two-thirds of these new jobs will be full-time salaried or 68 wage-paying positions that are in short supply in emerging economies. Full details of our methodology and assumptions are described in the technical appendix at the end of this report. The GDP impact varies a great deal among countries depending on their starting point The GDP impact varies from country to country depending on each country’s starting position on digital payments, financial inclusion, and financial depth. In general, the largest potential impact would be in the least developed countries. Countries with higher levels of income and financial inclusion can capture more modest, but still meaningful, GDP gains (Exhibit 19). Exhibit 19 GDP impact of digital financial services varies significantly across the seven focus countries GDP impact of digital financial services Increased Increased Increased % productivity investment labor GDP New increase, jobs, 2025F 2014 $ billion Million All emerging 3.8 2.0 0.2 6.0 3,718 95 countries Nigeria 6.6 4.6 1.2 12.4 88 3 India 4.8 6.8 0.2 11.8 700 21 Ethiopia 5.4 4.4 0 9.9 15 3 Pakistan 2.4 4.4 0.2 7.0 36 4 Brazil 3.6 1.7 0.2 5.5 152 4 Mexico 2.9 1.7 0.5 5.0 90 2 China 3.6 0.6 0 4.2 1,057 6 NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis 68 We use data from the International Labour Organisation (ILO) on total employment in developing countries. DUPLICATE from ES This is defined as people working for a public or private employer who receive remuneration in the form of salary, wages, tips, or commission, or in-kind. In 2014, they report total employment in developing countries at 2.7 billion people. Salaried or wage-paying positions are a subset of total employment as defined by the ILO. 52 McKinsey Global Institute 3. Quantifying the benefits of digital finance