Thanks go to MGI senior editors Janet Bush, Colin Douglas, and Peter Gumbel; senior graphic designers Marisa Carder, Jason Leder, and Patrick White, and designer Margo Shimasaki; Richard Johnson, senior editor, data visualization; Tim Beacom and Karen Jones for their research expertise; Matt Cooke and Rebeca Robboy for their help on external communications; Julie Philpot, MGI’s editorial production manager; and Chelsea Grewe and Deadra Henderson in MGI practice management. Many McKinsey colleagues around the world provided invaluable input and assisted in our field research. They include Salman Ahmad, Suparna Biswas, Eduardo Bolio, Alberto Chaia, Mutsa Chironga, Violet Chung, Bobby Demissie, Yran Dias, Xiyuan Fang, Aaron Flohrs, Vijay Gosula, Feng Han, David Jiang, Bill Jones, Jawad Khan, Prasad Lad, Akash Lal, Tomás Lajous, Joshua Lan, Flavio Litterio, Anu Madgavkar, Heitor Martins, Joe Ngai, Philip Osafo-Kwaako, John Qu, Joydeep Sengupta, Daniel Sujo, Sasi Sunkara, Renny Thomas, and Nicole Zhou. This report contributes to MGI’s mission to help business and policy leaders understand the forces transforming the global economy, identify strategic locations, and prepare for the next wave of growth. As with all MGI research, this work reflects our independent views and has not been commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. We welcome your comments on the research at [email protected]. Jacques Bughin Director, McKinsey Global Institute Senior partner, McKinsey & Company Brussels James Manyika Director, McKinsey Global Institute Senior partner, McKinsey & Company San Francisco Jonathan Woetzel Director, McKinsey Global Institute Senior partner, McKinsey & Company Shanghai September 2016