Current as of March 16, 2020 COVID-19 Leading indicator dashboard for China Tracking toward economic restart Hubei impact China economic restart China consumer confidence How deep is the impact, and when could economic When could economic activity restart in China When will Chinese consumer confidence activity restart? (ex-Hubei)? and purchasing activity return? Late Hubei remains deeply impacted; return Late Restart has begun, especially for larger companies, Consumer spending in China spend may lag Q2 to economic activity tough to foresee until mid Q1 despite challenges such as labor shortages and Q2 behind economic restart Q2 movement of goods Tourism and some other sectors impacted well into Q2 Recovery Daily infection Crude case Labor availability Return to work index Air PMI Congestion Earliest Example consumer 1 5 milestones rate, per million fatality ratio (movement of workers (largest manufacturing pollution manufact. in major cities school behavior metrics to major industrial cities by output in (NO2level) restarts (anecdotal) 2 3) Steady decline in provinces) mainland China confirmed cases 32% 14pt 90% Retail passenger car Jiangsu 7 Shenzhen 54% decline in decline Shenzhen 6 sales down 92% New suspected and 0.07 ~4.6% 11 Beijing4 in Feb 63% confirmed cases 65% Smartphone sales rates consistent 4 24% Beijing 71% 8 down 37% with other provinces Shandong Shanghai 57% 6 decline in 64% Spending on food & Quarantine lifted Shenzhen4 Shanghai 67% drinks down $60B >4x >4x Zhejiang 7 Chongqing 50% in January and Public transport 7 Nanjing 80% February resumes 69% 17 Guangdong 9 Wuhan 18% 6% Hotel occupancy Factory activity 8 Wuhan 54% down 80% returns to pre- outbreak levels ~1.1% 03/15/2020 <0.02 Same day 2019 03/03/2020 03/16/2020 Started with online lessons th Same day After March 15 Hubei China other (avg.) Small businesses face more labor disruption TBD Source: WHO Situation Reports; National Bureau of Statistics of China; McKinsey Global Institute; OCED Data, Johns Hopkins CSSE, press research, TomTom traffic index, Baidu QianXi, CDC, New York Times, Reuters, The Economist, Peking University HSBC Business School, Tencent News, Sina news, Beijing Environmental Protection Monitoring Center, Shenzhen Environment Network McKinsey & Company 28