Current as of March 16, 2020 Scenario overview The situation now Epidemiological scenarios Economic impacts COVID-19 has seen a consistent case Delayed Recovery China and East Asian countries start decline in countries that had China and East Asian countries continue recovery but supply chains remain experienced rapid case growth early their current recovery and control the impaired (esp China, South Korea) virus by late Q1 or early Q2 2020 US and Europe large-scale quarantines, However, cases outside of Asia are European and US case count growth travel restrictions, and social distancing growing dramatically, driven primarily rises rapidly through mid-April drive drop-off in consumer spending and business investment in 2020 by complexes in Europe and the Middle East. The United States, while Prolonged Contraction China and East Asia experience double- it has confirmed only a limited number dip slowdowns as economic recovery is of new cases, may experience a large China and East Asian countries face a derailed in 2020 and pushed into Q1 increase in cases once testing kits surge of re-infection as they attempt to 2021 become widely available restart economic activity The virus is not seasonal with a mutated The United States and Europe virus resurging in the fall of 2020 experience demand-side reductions in consumer and business spending and deep recessions in 2020 Sources: World Health Organization Situation Reports, news reports, McKinsey analysis McKinsey & Company 13