In less than four months, COVID-19 has upended it’s unclear whether once the pandemic recedes, almost all expectations for 2020. Beyond the loss of these customers will return to their old ways or if the life and the fear caused by the pandemic, businesses pandemic will create new types of consumers. around the world have faced disruptions at a speed and scale unprecedented in the modern era. Given these and other uncertainties and the need for experimentation and fast learning to navigate Companies everywhere are now wrestling with the through them effectively, we believe that the next question of how to reach the next normal safely. step in the response of businesses cannot be Many talk about a return to the workplace as a plan thought of as a phase at all. It will be open ended that needs to be implemented: a series of systematic rather than fixed in time. A better mental model steps to reach some kind of stable operating model, is to think about developing a new “muscle”: an in a world where vaccines are adequately available enterprise-wide ability to absorb uncertainty and or herd immunity has been reached. In many cases, incorporate lessons into the operating model these plans suggest a return to some relatable quickly. The muscle has to be a “fast-twitch” one, version of the past. characterized by a willingness to change plans and base decisions on hypotheses about the future— Yet the intrinsic uncertainties that might scupper supported by continually refreshed microdata such plans continue to mount. Executives readily about what’s happening, for example, in each retail admit, for instance, that it is tough to write a deter- location. And the muscle also needs some “slow- ministic return plan because of the likelihood of twitch” fibers to set long-term plans and manage a resurgence, discoveries about how the virus is through structural shifts. transmitted and whom it affects, the nature and duration of immunity, and continued changes in Many companies are trying to hang on until a full the quality and availability of testing and contact reopening, perhaps made possible by a vaccine tracing. The best possible plan today is merely or herd immunity. Meanwhile, they are configuring a strawman that will need near-continuous their resources to be ready by then. That’s risky; recalibration and change. despite promising news from early clinical trials, a full reopening could be many months away—months Another critical uncertainty is the future of remote when companies must adapt to reality if they are to work. Some feel that recent events have driven survive. Already, signs of viral resurgence in Asia a real productivity gain they do not want to lose. are causing companies fixated on plans to rewrite However, they recognize that a wholesale shift to them hurriedly. remote work has had many false dawns. Silicon Valley has experimented with it most extensively, but In this article, we will outline four forces whose after many attempts to implement telecommuting, uncertain outcomes will shape the years to come, as our research found that at 15 top firms, only 8 well as the steps needed to build the return muscle percent of the employees work remotely. These to grapple with these forces—especially the nerve companies do not want to try this again only to roll it center that powers the muscle. Once the center has back in a few years. been built and incorporated into a new operating model across the organization, muscular companies Customer behavior is a third unknown. Companies will be ready for a new era of competition. We won’t see the clear shift to digital among consumers and say that this work will make companies future proof; its inevitable impact: online shopping has expanded the pandemic has exposed the folly of that idea. But by up to 60 percent in some categories, and up to we argue that building a return muscle is the right 20 percent of online consumers in the United States discipline for these times. have switched at least some brands recently. But 6 What now? Ten actions to emerge stronger in the next normal September 2020