How climate risk plays out on a lead to more frequent breaches of these thresholds, local level making outdoor work far more challenging and There is already plenty of evidence of the extensive threatening the lives of millions of people. damage that climate risk can inflict. Since 2000, there have been at least 13 climate events that have As of 2017, some 380 million of India’s heat-exposed resulted in significant negative socioeconomic outdoor workers (75 percent of the labor force) impact, as measured by the extent to which it produced about 50 percent of the country’s GDP. disrupted or destroyed “stocks” of capital—people, By 2030, 160 million to 200 million people could physical, and natural. The events include lethal heat live in urban areas with a nonzero probability of such waves, drought, hurricanes, fires, flooding, and heat waves occurring. By 2050, the number could depletion of water supply. rise to between 310 million and 480 million. The average person living in these regions has a roughly More frequent and more intense climate hazards 40 percent chance of experiencing a lethal heat will have large consequences. They are likely to wave in the decade centered on 2030. In the decade threaten systems that form the backbone of human centered on 2050, that probability could rise to productivity by breaching historical thresholds roughly 80 percent. for resilience. Climate hazards can undermine livability and workability, food systems, physical India’s productivity could suffer. Outdoor workers assets, infrastructure services, and natural capital. will need to take breaks to avoid heatstroke. Their Some events strike at multiple systems at once. bodies will protectively fatigue, in a so-called self- For example, extreme heat can curtail outdoor limiting process, to avoid overheating. By 2030, work, shift food systems, disrupt infrastructure diminished labor productivity could reduce GDP by services, and endanger natural capital such as between 2.5 and 4.5 percent. glaciers. Extreme precipitation and flooding can destroy physical assets and infrastructure while India does have ways to adapt. Increased access to endangering coastal and river communities. air-conditioning, early-warning systems, and cooling Hurricanes can damage global supply chains, and shelters can help combat deadly heat. Working biome shifts can affect ecosystem services. hours for outdoor personnel could be shifted, and cities could implement heat-management efforts. At The best way to see how this will play out is to look the extreme, coordinated movement of people and at specific cases. MGI looked at nine distinct cases capital from high-risk areas could be organized. of physical climate risk in a range of geographies These would be costly shifts, of course. Adaptation and sectors. Each considers the direct impact and to climate change will be truly challenging if it knock-on effects of a specific climate hazard in a changes how people conduct their daily lives or specific location, as well as adaptation costs and requires them to move to areas that are less at risk. strategies that might avert the worst outcomes. Let’s look at four of those cases (see also sidebar Will mortgages and markets stay afloat in “Global problem, local impact”). Florida? Florida’s expansive coastline, low elevation, and Will it get too hot to work in India? porous limestone foundation make it vulnerable The human body provides one example of the to flooding. The changing climate is likely to bring nonlinear effect of breaching physical thresholds. more severe storm surge from hurricanes and The body must maintain a relatively stable core more tidal flooding. Rising sea levels could push temperature of approximately 37 degrees Celsius salt water into the freshwater supply, damaging to function properly. An increase of just 0.9 of a water-management systems. A once-in-100-years degree compromises neuromuscular coordination; 3 hurricane (that is, a hurricane of 1 percent likelihood degrees can induce heatstroke; and 5 degrees can per year) would damage about $35 billion in real cause death. In India, rising heat and humidity could estate today. By 2050, the damage from such 98 What now? Ten actions to emerge stronger in the next normal September 2020