Case studies based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario Can supply chains weather climate change? Increasing risk: a once-in-100-years hurricane in the western Pacific, which will be 4x more likely by 2040, could shut down the semiconductor supply chain Potential damage: supply chains are optimized for efficiency, not resilience, so production could halt for months; unprepared downstream players could see revenue dip 35% in 1 year Upstream mitigation: protecting semiconductor plants against hazards could add 2% to building costs Downstream mitigation: increasing inventory to provide a meaningful buffer could be cost-effective © Design Pics/The Irish Image Collection/Getty Images Can coastal cities turn the tide on rising flood risk? Increasing risk: increased flooding and severe storm surges threaten to cause physical damage to coastal cities, while knock-on effects would hamper economic activity even more Infrastructure threats: ports, low-lying train stations, and underground metros could be at risk, as could factories close to the coast Total damage: in Bristol, England, a once-in-200-years flood in 2065 could cause ≤$3 billion in damage; in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, a once-in-100-years flood in 2050 could wreak ~$10 billion in damage Adaptation: it would take up to $500 million for Bristol to protect itself now from that scenario; Ho Chi Minh City might need seawalls, which could be very costly © Tan Dao Duy/Getty Images Confronting climate risk 101