Current as of March 16, 2020 5 COVID-19 appears to be Comparison to other diseases more dangerous than the flu Early identification of the disease, intensification of Latest as of March 15, 2020 viral control, and treatment, when available, will reduce reproduction number and case fatality 3 1 H Measles Features of the disease to date r on 4) e s > b r ( e G Polio3 m p h u n d 1.5-2x e Hig Chickenpox Smallpox K e t ag c ) r e g D Higher reproduction than the flu e f n in i t ( avh t 3 c e 4) a s r e - e k 2 Up to 20% b y a ( MERS-CoV J b e m r m F SARS-CoV u d b iu Of cases have a severe/critical form of the n e t d t u e n c o 6 o e M COVID-19 disease i f in t n c i u C Zika e d l o op E Influenza 1918 r e Ebola (West ~0.9% p p 2) B Influenza H2N2 1957 I - Re 0 Africa 2014) Case Fatality Ratio in South Korea after of ( A Influenza H1N1 2009 w widespread testing. CFR appears higher Lo where cases are missed and is higher when health systems are overwhelmed2 Low (<2%) Medium (2-15%) High (>15%) 4 Case Fatality (proportion of deaths among confirmed cases) 1. Evidence on exact numbers are emerging, however expected to decrease as viral containment measures intensify and treatments are developed 2. WHO estimates the global average CFR at 3.4%, dependent on conditions such as patient age, community immunity, and health system capabilities. Latest case fatality ratios were calculated as death/ cases 3. In outbreak setting or the introduction of a new disease 4. Case Fatality numbers reflect outbreak settings and factors such as the patient's age, community immunity and health system capabilities 5. Estimates are very context and time specific, however are provided from prior outbreaks based on academic lit review 6. WHO estimates 15% severe and 5% critical Sources: World Health Organization, CDC, Nature, The Lancet, PLOS One The Journal of Infectious Diseases, BMC Infectious Diseases, Infectious Disease Modelling, news reports McKinsey & Company 5