Current as of March 16, 2020 Executive summary The situation Possible future Actions for companies now scenarios to consider COVID-19 has seen a consistent case Delayed Recovery: The virus continues to A central, cross-functional Nerve decline in countries that had experienced spread across the Middle East, Europe and Center can coordinate efforts to: rapid case growth early (esp. China, South US until mid Q2 2020, when virus seasonality Ÿ Protect employees and give them Korea) combined with a stronger public health a strong sense of shared purpose However, cases outside of Asia are growing response drives case load reduction Ÿ Stress-test financials dramatically, driven primarily by complexes Prolonged Contraction: The virus spreads Ÿ Stabilize the supply chain in Europe and the Middle East. The United globally without a seasonal decline, creating Ÿ Engage customers States, while it has confirmed only a limited a demand shock that lasts until Q2 2021. number of new cases, appears to be set for Health systems are overwhelmed in many a large increase in cases once testing kits countries, especially the poorest, with large- become widely available scale human and economic impact Sources: World Health Organization Situation Reports, news reports, McKinsey analysis McKinsey & Company 3